Well,
My daughter trying to text me while I was driving to pick her up was basically the trigger to upgrade. I couldn't respond to her texts while I was driving. A bluetooth headset doesn't work with texts, something kids (who don't drive) clearly haven't figured out yet (CALL ME!).
Anyways, I didn't get an iPad 2 because I didn't see the value. Faster processor and graphics didn't sell me. My original iPad is fast enough. Now, the iPad 3 with a rumored retina display would push me to buy. The iPhone 4S would have met the same response except for the SIRI feature which is what pushed me to buy.
I don't see where the next big innovation is going to be in the phone space. The screen is already as hi-res as anyone needs. Faster CPU/graphics will enable more software features and it's here where the innovation will come, not on the hardware side I think. I'm hoping I'll get two gens out of the 4S. You figure the iPhone 5 will still be using a dual-core chip and probably the same GPU. The screen may be a little larger but I don't need a larger phone thank you.
So, I bought an iPhone 4S for the software and hoping that with the new CPU/GPU, it'll run iOS 6 decently. Something that is worrying me is linking the software to the hardware. SIRI looks to only run on the 4S. Will future revisions require a 5? I'm hoping a lot of the SIRI is running on Apples cloud and hopefully, this will take the pressure off requiring faster and faster phones to run it.
As for the case staying the same, HURRAY! I already have an external case, and so on. A new case would just force more spending and waste throwing away the old cases.
I'm hoping the phone will soon just become a dumb terminal with voice preprocessing/screen and connectivity and most of the 'firmware' will be running on the cloud where it belongs...